feat(categorize): confidence calibration engine + measurement loop (cascade step 4) (#1784)

Turns the selector's raw confidence into a score that means what it says.

- lib/agent/categorize/calibration.ts: the engine. Isotonic regression
  (pool-adjacent-violators, distribution-free + monotonic) over
  (confidence, was_correct) samples → a calibrator; plus reliabilityByBucket,
  ECE, and bandFor(). bandFor NEVER returns 'auto' without a fitted calibrator
  (no silent booking on an unproven score) and never auto-books above an amount
  cap. 12 engine tests (overconfidence pulled down, underconfidence lifted,
  monotonicity, ECE, band gating).
- Measurement loop: migration categorize_calibration_samples (append-only,
  company-scoped RLS, confidence CHECK [0,1]) + POST /api/agent/categorize/
  outcome logging one sample (proposed vs actually booked) fire-and-forget from
  QuickReviewDialog on a successful book (sandbox skipped). AiCategorizeProposal
  surfaces the proposal metadata via onProposal.
- scripts/fit-categorize-calibration.ts (read-only): prints the reliability
  diagram + ECE + fitted calibrator once data has accumulated.

Fitting needs a few hundred real outcomes, so nothing calibrates today — the
loop starts collecting, and "säker" stays uncalibrated (no auto-book) until the
data proves it. 131 unit tests green; RLS covered by a pg-real test.

Co-authored-by: Jakob Wennberg <311770904+jakobwennberg-oss@users.noreply.github.com>
Co-authored-by: Claude Opus 4.8 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
Jakob Wennberg
2026-08-21 15:55:26 +02:00
committed by GitHub
co-authored by Jakob Wennberg Claude Opus 4.8
parent 524d9978f1
commit 704bf93e08
11 changed files with 751 additions and 6 deletions
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import { describe, it, expect, vi, beforeEach } from 'vitest'
import { NextResponse } from 'next/server'
import { createMockRequest } from '@/tests/helpers'
const requireAuthMock = vi.fn()
vi.mock('@/lib/auth/require-auth', () => ({ requireAuth: () => requireAuthMock() }))
vi.mock('@/lib/company/context', () => ({ getActiveCompanyId: vi.fn().mockResolvedValue('company-1') }))
const guardSandbox = vi.fn()
vi.mock('@/lib/sandbox/guard', () => ({ guardSandbox: () => guardSandbox() }))
import { POST } from '../route'
const inserts: Record<string, unknown>[] = []
function makeSupabase(membership: unknown = { user_id: 'user-1' }) {
return {
from(table: string) {
const chain = {
select: () => chain,
eq: () => chain,
maybeSingle: async () => ({ data: membership }),
insert: async (payload: Record<string, unknown>) => {
if (table === 'categorize_calibration_samples') inserts.push(payload)
return { error: null }
},
}
return chain
},
}
}
const supabase = makeSupabase()
const body = (o: Record<string, unknown> = {}) => ({ confidence: 0.9, booked_account: '5410', ...o })
beforeEach(() => {
vi.clearAllMocks()
inserts.length = 0
requireAuthMock.mockResolvedValue({ user: { id: 'user-1' }, supabase, error: null })
guardSandbox.mockResolvedValue(null)
})
describe('POST /api/agent/categorize/outcome', () => {
it('401 when unauthenticated', async () => {
requireAuthMock.mockResolvedValue({ user: null, supabase, error: NextResponse.json({ error: 'x' }, { status: 401 }) })
expect((await POST(createMockRequest('/x', { method: 'POST', body: body() }))).status).toBe(401)
})
it('400 on an invalid body', async () => {
expect((await POST(createMockRequest('/x', { method: 'POST', body: { confidence: 2 } }))).status).toBe(400)
expect((await POST(createMockRequest('/x', { method: 'POST', body: { booked_account: '5410' } }))).status).toBe(400)
})
it('403 without company membership', async () => {
requireAuthMock.mockResolvedValue({ user: { id: 'user-1' }, supabase: makeSupabase(null), error: null })
expect((await POST(createMockRequest('/x', { method: 'POST', body: body() }))).status).toBe(403)
})
it('skips sandbox bookings (204, no sample)', async () => {
guardSandbox.mockResolvedValue(NextResponse.json({ error: 'sandbox' }, { status: 403 }))
const res = await POST(createMockRequest('/x', { method: 'POST', body: body() }))
expect(res.status).toBe(204)
expect(inserts).toHaveLength(0)
})
it('logs was_correct=true when the proposed account was booked', async () => {
const res = await POST(
createMockRequest('/x', {
method: 'POST',
body: body({ proposed_account: '5410', booked_account: '5410', confidence: 0.86, source: 'counterparty_template', amount: 499 }),
}),
)
expect(res.status).toBe(204)
expect(inserts).toHaveLength(1)
expect(inserts[0]).toMatchObject({
company_id: 'company-1',
confidence: 0.86,
proposed_account: '5410',
booked_account: '5410',
was_correct: true,
source: 'counterparty_template',
amount: 499,
})
})
it('logs was_correct=false when the user booked a different account', async () => {
await POST(createMockRequest('/x', { method: 'POST', body: body({ proposed_account: '5410', booked_account: '6110' }) }))
expect(inserts[0].was_correct).toBe(false)
})
it('logs was_correct=false when there was no proposed account', async () => {
await POST(createMockRequest('/x', { method: 'POST', body: body({ proposed_account: null, booked_account: '5410' }) }))
expect(inserts[0].was_correct).toBe(false)
})
})
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import { NextResponse } from 'next/server'
import { z } from 'zod'
import { requireAuth } from '@/lib/auth/require-auth'
import { getActiveCompanyId } from '@/lib/company/context'
import { guardSandbox } from '@/lib/sandbox/guard'
/**
* POST /api/agent/categorize/outcome: log one calibration sample.
*
* Called (fire-and-forget) after a user books an AI proposal: it records the
* confidence the model reported and whether the proposed account was the one
* actually booked. That corpus is what lib/agent/categorize/calibration.ts
* later fits an isotonic calibrator on, so "säker" can be made to mean ~right.
*
* Telemetry only: it never posts anything and is gated on auth + membership.
* Sandbox bookings run on seed data, so they are silently skipped (a 204) to
* keep the corpus clean.
*/
const Schema = z.object({
company_id: z.string().uuid().optional(),
confidence: z.number().min(0).max(1),
proposed_account: z.string().max(20).nullable().optional(),
booked_account: z.string().min(1).max(20),
agreement: z.number().min(0).max(1).nullable().optional(),
model_confidence: z.enum(['high', 'medium', 'low']).nullable().optional(),
source: z.string().max(40).nullable().optional(),
amount: z.number().nullable().optional(),
})
const noContent = () => new Response(null, { status: 204 })
export async function POST(request: Request): Promise<Response> {
const { user, supabase, error } = await requireAuth()
if (error) return error
let body: unknown
try {
body = await request.json()
} catch {
return NextResponse.json({ error: 'Invalid JSON' }, { status: 400 })
}
const parsed = Schema.safeParse(body)
if (!parsed.success) return NextResponse.json({ error: 'Invalid body' }, { status: 400 })
const companyId = parsed.data.company_id ?? (await getActiveCompanyId(supabase, user.id))
if (!companyId) return noContent()
const { data: membership } = await supabase
.from('company_members')
.select('user_id')
.eq('company_id', companyId)
.eq('user_id', user.id)
.maybeSingle()
if (!membership) return NextResponse.json({ error: 'Forbidden' }, { status: 403 })
// Sandbox bookings are seed data: don't pollute the calibration corpus.
const blocked = await guardSandbox(supabase, companyId)
if (blocked) return noContent()
const proposed = parsed.data.proposed_account ?? null
// Best-effort: a failed telemetry insert must never surface to the user.
try {
await supabase.from('categorize_calibration_samples').insert({
company_id: companyId,
confidence: parsed.data.confidence,
agreement: parsed.data.agreement ?? null,
model_confidence: parsed.data.model_confidence ?? null,
source: parsed.data.source ?? null,
proposed_account: proposed,
booked_account: parsed.data.booked_account,
was_correct: proposed !== null && proposed === parsed.data.booked_account,
amount: parsed.data.amount ?? null,
})
} catch {
// swallow
}
return noContent()
}