Claude Opus 5
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A slow query is a complaint; a drifted pre-aggregate answers instantly, with
confidence, and is wrong. So the router is fail-closed on eight named reasons,
and the one people leave out — drift_never_verified — is the one that matters
on launch day: a brand-new aggregate is exactly as unproven as a drifted one.
Proved against ClickHouse 26.3.10.60, 2M rows, a real materialized view
(evidence/bi-p105/materialization-drift.json):
after backfill match, 48 buckets, 801 571 002 both sides
GDPR erasure ALTER TABLE ... DELETE on the source. An MV is an INSERT
trigger and never sees a mutation, so the aggregate kept
the deleted revenue: it would have reported 801 571 002
against a true 761 580 554 — 39 990 448 overstated,
5.251%, with NOTHING stale. Staleness at the moment of
the decision: 1 second.
guarded router base_table (state_not_serving)
counterfactual a staleness-only router SERVES it — measured, not assumed
after rebuild match, and routing returns to the materialization
Drift detection treats a MISSING bucket as drift even when every value present
is correct (late-arriving rows are the sneakiest failure), and an empty
comparison as insufficient_data rather than match — the same false green
BI-P025 found in a quality check over an empty table.
The measured speed-up is reported as a distribution, not a figure: p50 3.4x,
but the run-to-run range spans 0.6x-7.5x on one idle host, so quoting "3.4x"
as a property of the system would be misleading (BI-P104 doctrine).
19 unit tests + 4 against live ClickHouse.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>